How can we do data scrubbing?
I mean the sales data of a consumer electronic industry, which includes promotion, seasonality, trends, etc, and this needs to be seperated. Any ideas are welcomed.
When you say data. What is the source of this data. You
would need to use statistical models to estimate the seasonality, trend,
etc.
When I say history data, it is meant that it is actual
sales data from the execution system. I can't use this data directly as
base for forecasting. I need to first decompose it, and then use it.
Thanks for clearing that up. I pressume the transactional
data has mixed in it sales that where a result of promtional activity
Unless you need to have separated data for trends and
seasonality for reporting purposes, very specific forecasting methods or
similar, you don't need to separate it. Depending on the statistical model
used, it needs to have the actual sales with the trend and seasonality
included to be able to estimate the forecast. In some way the model is
able to extract the trend
For promotions it's different. In this case you need to
clean the history.
Some common ways to clean the history are:
This was a very helpful information. Infact, we intend to use an advanced forecasting method, that shall decompose the data into trend, seasonality. But, for promotion we will have to devise a way. The trend and seasonality data gets seperated internally through the forecasting heuristic (no link with the SNP heuristic obviously). Firstly, Model initialization happens where the system determines the necessary model parameters for the chosen forecast strategy. Based on the model, the basic value, trend value and seasonal
value is determined for each historical value during the model
Following this the indices are used for the future periods
to forecast. So you really have to do little to seperate the seasonal
Promotion planning is a differend ballgame though.In order to analyse promotion patterns in historic data there is a procedure to be followed. On the Promo Planning desktop - Choose the object view Historical analysis from the workspace toolbar and enter here the historic period for which you wish to decompose promotion - The system applies linear regression to the historical data, thus creating an ex-post forecast, and displays the results in the row Ex-post estimate. The difference between the historical data and the ex-post estimate is displayed in the Promotion pattern row. That was really what I was looking out for. You are correct
about decomposing data.
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